“This study will seek ideas from all sources to help preserve NOAA’s numerical weather forecast product quality in the event of a loss of NOAA polar satellite data,” the NOAA wrote in the statement. “It will consist of an enterprise-wide examination, from candidate alternative sensors through data assimilation and on to forecast model performance. It is intended to provide a comprehensive list of contingency options that could be exercised in the event of a gap in polar satellite observations … Through this web portal, the public can submit ideas, review submissions from other parties, and make comments and collaborate on ideas.”

      The NOAA is specifically concerned about the potential for a gap in polar satellite coverage in the afternoon orbit after convening with an independent review team to review the progress of its satellite programs and identify the challenges ahead. In addition to reports from Inspector General and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) on this topic, the NOAA said these meetings have substantiated NOAA’s concerns regarding the gap.

      “We are taking positive steps to mitigate the negative impacts to NOAA’s numerical weather forecasts that could be introduced by a lack of polar satellite data,” the NOAA said. “To this end, NOAA has commissioned an investigative study to broadly explore all available options, such as substitute observation data, alternative modeling data, and data assimilation improvements. NOAA is convening teams of internal and external experts, industry leaders, foreign partners, and academia to study each of these areas.”

      The NOAA has continued to use data from older polar-orbiting satellites when making long-term weather forecasts after the a replacement program that was jointly managed by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA was scrapped in 2010 due to delays and cost increases. NOAA’s new plan to replace the polar-orbiting satellites with spacecraft that will commence operations in 2017 at the earliest will cost approximately $13 billion.

      While the NOAA waits for a new system, the JPSS system has utilized a converted demonstration satellite that was originally part of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System Preparatory Project (NPOESS) launched in October 2011, which will last until 2016 at the latest.

      The administration has been hampered by criticism from GAO Director of IT Management David Powner, who blasted the management of the JPSS initiative in a recent report and predicted a high probability of a coverage gap occurring. The NOAA also has had problems maintaining its existing resources. It temporarily substituted its non-functional GOES-13 weather satellite with the backup GOES-14 satellite on Oct. 1 until the former returned to service almost a month after it shut down.

      NOAA’s U.S. West Coast satellite GOES-15 was unable to cover the Atlantic Ocean and the East Coast, so NOAA called GOES-14 into operation as the on-orbit spare to provide better coverage.

      The NOAA hopes the new study will protect its capability through a period of budget uncertainty in the U.S. government. Comments and ideas can be submitted for the study at NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service website. The deadline for feedback is Dec. 19.