[Satellite News 08-04-08] Marco Caceres, Senior Analyst and Director of Space Studies for The Teal Group, said that the August 2 failure of SpaceX’s third Falcon mission may throw their ability to compete for valuable NASA contracts into question.
    In an interview with Satellite News, Caceres said that while the payload lost on Flight 3 was relatively small (the U.S. Department of Defense’s Trailblazer and NASA’s PreSAT and NanoSail-D), it would take a long time for the company, and its energetic, multi-millionaire leader, Elon Musk, to establish a track record.
    “The hope was that SpaceX could get the Falcon 1 going and that would increase their chances on the Falcon 9,” said Caceres. “Ultimately, then, the lucrative contracts would start coming from NASA.”
    In light of the incident, NASA spokesperson Jennifer Morcone told Satellite News, "We have no active plans or resources to repeat these missions. We do have a back-up NanoSail-D satellite and if a future launch opportunity becomes available, either via SpaceX or another launch provider, we would be interested in trying again."
    SpaceX is competing for cargo re-supply contracts for NASA’s space station while the space shuttle is not in operation. Caceres said the failure of the Falcon 1 would most likely delay the Falcon 9, which would also delay the decision by NASA to lease services from SpaceX.
    “This may put Orbital Sciences in better position with the Taurus 2,” said Caceres. “Taurus 2 is nowhere near the advanced development of the Falcon 1, but it definitely gives it a edge, as far as time, on the Falcon 9, which they are competing against. The bottom line is, it all depends on Elon Musk. He certainly has the money to continue investing into this project, which he is passionate about.”
    Like with his previous two setbacks, Musk exhibited optimism in the face of disaster.
    "On the plus side, the flight of our first stage, with the new Merlin 1C engine that will be used in Falcon 9, was picture perfect,” said Musk in a statement to his employees. “SpaceX will not skip a beat in execution going forward. We have flight four of Falcon 1 almost ready for flight and flight five right behind that … As a precautionary measure to guard against the possibility of flight 3 not reaching orbit, SpaceX recently accepted a significant investment.  Combined with our existing cash reserves, that ensures we will have more than sufficient funding on hand to continue launching Falcon 1 and develop Falcon 9 and Dragon.  There should be absolutely zero question that SpaceX will prevail in reaching orbit and demonstrating reliable space transport.  For my part, I will never give up and I mean never.”
    Caceres said that while SpaceX would most likely retain its customers’ confidence in its vision, some companies might suggest that SpaceX launch a dummy payload for its next attempt.
    “These failures are the norm,” said Caceres. “When you have a new vehicle like this, you expect a series of launch failures. This was the case back in the 60s, when they were developing all the Deltas and the Atlases. It has gotten to the point in our industry where we expect that when a new vehicle is introduced, it will be followed by a series of successful launches. That doesn’t normally happen. Most companies should take three to five test launches before they undertake commercial or government payloads.”
Diane Murphy, vice president of marketing for SpaceX, told Satellite News that outside of Musk’s statement, the company had no new information to release on the failed launch. However, she said the company is “past [the launch failure] and looking forward to new projects and developments.”