When a Proton Breeze M rocket suffered a second launch failure in six months, it provided yet another reminder of how difficult placing a satellite in orbit can be and how much of an impact a failure can have across the industry.
The Proton vehicle’s second stage left SES Americom’s AMC-14 short of its intended orbit, and Proton customers, pay-TV subscribers in the United States and the insurance industry are among the groups that will feel the impact.
For the launch industry, the failure again draws attention to the delicate balance between supply and demand. Many customers are lining up to get spacecraft into orbit, and if one of the main providers is grounded, it leaves few options for satellite operators other than to wait. Following its January 2007 failure, Sea Launch took more than a year before returning to operations, and while some of its customers found alternate rides into space, those opportunities are few and far between.
“A failure is something none of us want to see,” says Rob Peckham, president and general manager of Sea Launch. “That said, [ILS] is going to probably have a schedule delay or slip that’s going to put pressure on end users to figure out ways to bridge the gap between when they thought were going to launch and when they are actually going to.
International Launch Service (ILS), which has a “very full manifest in 08 [and] a good manifest in 09,” according to the company, may not have to worry about losing customers to other launch providers, whose manifests  also are booked, but the company also must resist the pressure to return to flight before being absolutely certain that all questions are answered.
“There’s been enough failures having to do with the Breeze M that would lead me to be concerned if I was a customer,” says Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group. “Just the fact that you’ve got three Proton failures [since 2006], that would be a concern, especially now that you no longer have Lockheed Martin involved in [ILS].”
The failure also leaves Dish Network, which had agreed to lease AMC-14 for 10 years to provide high-definition services, scrambling. Rival DirecTV placed its DirecTV-11 satellite — also ticketed for expanding high-definition services —  into orbit only days after the Proton failure, and terrestrial competitors also are expanding their lineups.
Dish insists that it will still increase its local high-definition offerings by more than 60 percent throughout the next two months but that plan also depends on more satellites being launched.
Insurance rates also will be affected. Space insurers will raise premiums up to 30 percent following failures in 2007, according to Aon Space, and this did not include the Proton failure. Claims for 2007 are estimated to reach $835 million, which Aon called “an uncharacteristic year, … [but ] if insurers perceive 2007 and early 2008 as an indication of higher claims patterns to come, this could lead to tough negotiations over the coming months,” the company said.
More than 50 years after the launch of the first satellite, the industry again is reminded that the task remains nearly as difficult as the first time.