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BSkyB Churn Likely To Increase Further – Analyst
Dresdner Kleinwort is the latest investment bank to give its opinions on BSkyB’s recent results, and out of the investments banks to have analysed BSkyB so far, it is one of the most negative and has a "sell" rating on the stock.
Omar Sheikh, a media equity analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort, said in a research note that “Q2 results were disappointing, with churn standing out as a key negative surprise. We believe the market is overlooking a number of elephants in the room, which to us send the signal loud and clear that Sky’s pay TV business is rapidly maturing.”
The churn figure BSkyB reported in its results for the quarter was 11.9 percent, and Sheikh believes it could go beyond 13 percent soon.
He commented “to us, churn spiking to the highest level in the digital era in response to a pull-back in package discounting sends a very clear message: Over the last few quarters Sky has been adding some lower quality, price sensitive, subscribers on discounted offers with higher propensity to churn. We think it is a bit unfair to argue 27,000 ‘offer riders’ should be excluded from churn figure – after all, Sky was quite happy to take the credit for including these subscribers in its gross additions in previous quarters. We are now looking for 13 percent churn in Q3, and assume a fall back to 12.2 percent in Q4. We believe both assumptions could prove generous.”
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