As satellite business executives look forward to the first years of the 21st century, they can expect the landscape of multimedia space-based applications to remain turbulent. More than ever, in the next 10 years the global satellite industry will change according to a new study: Satellite Communications and Broadcasting Markets Survey, Worldwide Prospects to 2009.

Euroconsult’s 10-year forecast of the commercial communication satellite market charts the trends in fixed and mobile, voice and data telecommunications and the broadcasting sector. According to the 260-page report, manufacturers and operators will launch geostationary satellites through 2009 to meet the projected demand, with a total market value to exceed $50 billion.

Roughly 213 Satellites Will Be Needed By 2009

According to the study, a minimum of 213 geostationary satellites should be launched during the period of 2000-09 to meet demand from commercial telecommunications and television companies. Counting launches, insurance and ground control equipment, the market’s total value may reach $55 billion.

Likewise, a total of 101 satellites had been placed under contracts and were considered in construction at the end of March, leaving roughly 53 percent of the market forecast to be captured by the manufacturers.

Even though there will be a manufacturing demand, the study points out that regulatory issues will have an adverse effect on the broadcasting market sector. According to the report, though the ability of satellites to deliver ubiquitous signals make them irreplaceable for broadcasting applications, these can be delivered using less spectrum and they require skills which companies used to sell point-to-point services cannot quickly acquire.

Regulatory barriers and spectrum congestion will continue to be obstacles as this market sector continues to mature.

In addition, a slight downturn has been expected for years, but this should not be a cause of major concerns for business developers. The report indicates that the launch rate for commercial geostationary satellites will drop to a low in 2005, but will again ramp up sharply toward a new high in 2009.

Likewise, Euroconsult analysts predict that the future growth on the industry’s success while lie in entering new markets such as direct access to the Internet.

Transponder Demand Will Be Sustained Through 2009

Despite an onslaught of competition from improved fiber optic networks, the study remains bullish on transponder growth sustainability and satellites in general playing an intricate role in 21st century information transmission.

Internet trunking and Internet content distribution to subscribers equipped with direct-access antennas, projected to number nearly 15 million by 2009, would generate one-third of transponder demand at that time. However, the study indicates that growth is expected to slow in the television market, or at least to pause, as some markets become saturated. This, and the steady progress of video compression, should begin to reduce the share of television’s transponder usage by mid-decade.

In addition, demand for C- and Ku-band transponders will grow by roughly 46 percent by 2009. The study does point out that it is not certain that the available spectrum can accommodate this increase, given that spectrum congestion already extends the frequency coordination process to three years or more.

Those interested in purchasing a copy of the $3,450 report can do so by filling out the order from at http://www.euroconsult-ec.com.