High-resolution satellite imagery could pose a realistic threat to U.S. national security. Industry companies currently commercializing these pixels claim no long-term adverse effects will occur. “After seven months of operations, not much has happened from a national security standpoint, however, U.S. success in high-resolution imagery has made other countries think harder about its global implications,” said John Copple, CEO of Space Imaging (SBN, May 24).
This new abundance of information, however, does not guarantee benevolent uses of satellite imagery according to a new report. Secrets For Sale: How Commercial Satellite Imagery Will Change The World produced by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggests the commercial remote sensing sector should proceed with caution.
“This is a badly needed analysis of an industry still in its infancy. Satellite imagery is a crucial component of an ongoing shift toward greater transparency. Mishandling the technologies would impose heavy costs in missed opportunities and potential threats. If handled right, the new transparency could offer enormous benefits worldwide,” said Jessica Matthews, president of the Carnegie Endowment.
In fact, the study highlights the possibility that state and non-state actors could employ remote sensing imagery to conduct industrial espionage, collect intelligence, plan terrorist attacks or mount offensive military operations. Such commercial imagery could be easy to obtain if adversaries misrepresent themselves through a fictitious store front.
“If such a situation occurs, we will not be able to track that data to its end source,” said Brian Soliday, vice president of North American sales and marketing for Space Imaging. “This is similar to telephone companies not being responsible for conversations over their systems that may lead to a bank robbery.”
The 45-page report further points out the possibility that widely available high-resolution satellite imagery will “undoubtedly compel governments to develop effective means for keeping their secrets hidden. Many states, especially those with regional adversaries, will invest heavily in denial and deception and anti-satellite countermeasures. Such a development could have serious implications for confidence-building and crisis management among mutually vulnerable states.”
Further Drawbacks Of Satellite Imaging
The study is also quick to point out that transparency, though a positive attribute overall, does carry with it some negative consequences. Transparency could aggravate interstate conflicts by removing ambiguities about relative capabilities and allowing state to exploit each others’ weaknesses. To the degree that governments new to remote sensing misinterpret what they see, imagery could create “groundless” fears.
Likewise, transparency could also complicate decision making by introducing new participants into the policy process. Non-governmental organizations could independently use satellite imagery to monitor state compliance with international agreements, expose environmental degradation and publicize large-scale humanitarian emergencies. The study further speculates that in some situations civil society groups and the media might be able to compel states to take action, even when government officials would much prefer to do nothing.
The challenge industry leaders may face could be found in devising policies that harness the benefits of growing international transparency while minimizing its many potential negative consequences.
Even though the study suggests that the significant transparency issues will be felt the hardest the world leaders, for the rest of civilization, this new form of transparency will do far more good than harm. Countries that now live in fear of one another will be able to learn whether those potentially hostile neighbors are, in fact, mobilizing for attack, and would-be attackers, at least sometimes, will be deterred by the overwhelming likelihood of detection.
To obtain a copy of the report, interested parties can visit Carnegie Endowment’s Web site: http://www.ceip.org/programs/transparency/transp-events.htm.