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Globalstar L.P.’s [GSTRF] revenues this year probably will not be so important for the company’s solvency but will be important for investor and industry perceptions, especially with the final nail having been placed in Iridium’s coffin.

According to Phillips Satellite Analyst, Karekin Jelalian, after Globalstar’s secondary offering of $268 million in net proceeds on Jan. 27, the company had approximately $812 million to spend. Globalstar’s $250 million of interest expense and approximately $210 million of operating expenses and $150 million of capital expenditures total $610 million in cash outflow for the year.

So, short of any revenues, the company has about enough money to take it through the spring of next year, assuming a $250 million credit facility is renewed by Chase Capital Partners. Even without access to the $250 million facility (which would be a big blow to investor confidence), Globalstar would have enough cash–$562 million–to take it through most of the year, again short of any revenues.

The most likely scenario is for Globalstar to end the year with revenue in the $40 million to $70 million range, based on 190,000-210,000 year-end subscribers. Globalstar should accelerate its subscriber pick-up rate as it continues its admittedly slow service rollout and resolves system kinks that limit international roaming, ease of phone use and the like.

But observers will have to play the conjecture game until June, when Globalstar is expected to release reliable subscriber and usage numbers.

Helping out the perception will be the latest planned launch of Globalstar service in Brazil next month.

Brazil, the 12th country where the Globalstar [GSTRF] satellite-based telephony service has obtained landline connections, will celebrate the achievement at Americas Telecom 2000 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between April 10-15. The conference is a gathering of officials from the world’s largest telecommunications companies.


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