by Scott Chase

Ask Arthur C. Clarke, entrepreneur, inventor, adventurer and, for many, the "father" of communications via satellite, what futures he sees for mankind in the new century, and the author of 2001: A Space Odyssey refers his inquisitors to voluminous and existing published works of prophecy.

Then he goes on, in his own joyous way (at 82 as of December 16, Clarke told me he is "only in my late youth"), to suggest such things as super-resilient future metals-"hundreds of times stronger than steel"-that will permit the construction of artificial rings around Mother Earth. From these rings will hang transponders, energy generation devices, whatever can benefit from a towering and stable perch above the planet. Then it’s a short step to space elevators and the like, Clarke says.

Clarke, in a landmark article written in May and published in October 1945, applied the bitter lessons of World War 2’s primitive ballistic missiles to a fantasy of future access to space and a solid grounding in physics to predict the emergence of geostationary communications satellites. He suggested to the select readership of Wireless World magazine that it someday would be possible to create a system of three artificial moons at an altitude of 22,300 miles above earth that would permit universal radio coverage.

Sir Arthur thought through the whole equation. He selected prime orbital locations for Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Ocean hemispheric coverage, and recognized that earth stations, or arrays, "on earth, once set up, could remain fixed indefinitely." He also speculated that "small parabolas about a foot in diameter would be used for receiving at the earth end and would give a very good signal/noise ratio." Clarke estimated that "the power required for the broadcast service would be about 1.2 kilowatts," a level that he termed generous.

Beyond unintended boosterism for the worldwide commercial communications satellite industry, Clarke has made a living as the proprietor of Underwater Adventures, a scuba diving business in his adopted home country of Sri Lanka, as the author of scores of fiction and nonfiction tomes, and as reluctant seer. "Despite all claims to the contrary," Clarke demurs in his most recent anthology, Greetings, Carbon-Based Bipeds! (St. Martin’s Press, New York, 1999), "no one can predict the future, and I have always resisted all journalistic attempts to label me a prophet. What I have tried to do, at least in my nonfiction, is to outline possible futures-at the same time pointing out that totally unexpected inventions or events can make any forecasts absurd in a very few years."

Clarke then goes on to suggest such technological, social and cataclysmic events in the 21st century as the end of all reliance on fossil fuels and the destruction (following a catastrophic accident) of nuclear weapons. He cites the elimination of "professional criminals from society," the introduction of space planes and the advent of orbital tourism, manned landings on Mars and on Halley’s Comet, the unambiguous detection of extraterrestrial intelligence, and (a personal favorite) the abolition of "that recent invention of human history-work!" To get details on how that happens, you have to read Clarke’s book.

Sir Arthur also throws in a few funnies. He predicts that Prince Harry will be the first member of the British royal family to fly in space (2013) and that inventors will develop a "Braincap," the next-century equivalent to the Walkman (2025). He also sees the cloning of "dinosaur facsimiles" that result in the already well-traveled fantasy of Jurassic Park (2021).

Of course, being named Via Satellite’s Satellite Visionary of the Century implies that Clarke would-or should-instantly be recognized as the industry visionary of the millennium. But Clarke is one of those purists who insists that we still have twelve months to go in both this hundred-and this thousand-year cycle. So, as he puts it, there’s still time for another round of millennial parties, and perhaps even time for someone else to claim the title of millennial visionary.

Perhaps, but not very likely. Happy birthday, Sir Arthur!

Scott Chase is vice president and group publisher of Phillips Satellite and Space Group.