Northern Sky Research’s (NSR) “Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 2nd Edition” report forecasts cumulative Flat Panel Antenna (FPA) equipment sales to reach $9.1 billion by 2026. NSR finds that aeronautical equipment will drive revenue growth for manufacturers, while fixed broadband services from non-geosynchronous satellites will be the main volume market.

FPAs, and more specifically, phased array antennas, have been deployed since the 1980s. Their cost and performance have been the major factors holding back further development, according to the report.

“There is no one specific FPA technology that fits every need, as each market has its own specific performance requirements that come with the weight of regulatory and economic constraints,” said Prateep Basu, NSR analyst and report co-author.

Technical complexity of FPAs for mobile applications is expected to keep antenna prices high, even as they become more viable in mobile markets. Combined with the rapidly rising number of airlines pursuing in-flight connectivity, large leisure maritime markets, and the established land-mobile government sector, NSR expects mobile applications to drive FPA revenues, accounting for more than 92 percent of total FPA equipment revenues, by 2026. Satellite broadband applications, driven by the expected operationalization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) High-Throughput Satellite (HTS) constellations such as OneWeb and SpaceX, are the main drivers of the fixed applications forecast, delivering services to more than 2 million lower-priced FPAs by the end of the forecast, primarily to the Middle East and Asia.

“The market today is clearly dominated by commercial aviation connectivity markets. However, partnership models that new FPA manufacturers are adopting across the satellite industry value-chain can be expected to accelerate vertical market-specific development,” said Dallas Kasaboski, NSR analyst and report co-author.