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Space traffic management (STM) is nearing “a tipping point” and key space nations need to establish an international space traffic management organization (ISTMO) to deconflict such traffic, and such nations should convene an international space traffic management meeting within five years that sets specific milestones to be achieved within a decade, according to a report this month by RAND.

“STM is currently an ad hoc process,” said the report, International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability. “This informal and ill-coordinated approach is likely to deteriorate in effectiveness as congestion in space increases. As of December 2022, there were approximately 6,900 active satellites, more than 36,500 pieces of trackable debris (10 cm or larger), and approximately 1 million objects sized 1 cm to 10 cm in space—all of which could cause significant or catastrophic loss of valuable orbital assets in the event of cascading collisions (often referred to as the Kessler Syndrome).”

“By some estimates, tens of thousands of additional satellites might occupy Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) by 2030, compounding the risks and threats to successful STM,” the study said. “Additionally, having to maneuver to safety in a reactive manner because of a lack of effective STM imposes additional costs in terms of fuel, which necessarily shortens the lifespan of the satellites. These shortened lifespans not only reduce the return on investment of any such assets; they also risk creating more dangerous debris if those defunct satellites are not disposed of safely and sustainably.”

Gaining international legitimacy for an ISTMO will likely be a high hurdle, especially given Russia’s attack on Ukraine, U.S. opposition to anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons versus the opposing Russian and Chinese views, and the lack of military space dialogue between the United States and China. The RAND report said that “most critically, ISTMO legitimacy will necessitate buy-in from key space powers, including the United States, China, and Russia, while including extant regional bodies, non-spacefaring nations, and low- and middle-income countries, and eventually connecting them via an international U.N.-based organization.”

In January last year, LeoLabs, a California-based startup that has provided low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to aid the U.S. Space Force’s 18th Space Control Squadron in its space domain awareness mission, said that space debris management is more pressing than STM.

The 780 to 850 kilometer range in LEO shows a high risk for potential collisions because of the Chinese ASAT test in 2007, rocket bodies abandoned by Russia decades ago, and derelict U.S. payloads and debris from those payloads, per LeoLabs.

The June 2018 Space Policy Directive-3 (SPD-3) called for the United States to lead STM and space debris mitigation globally.

In December last year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Space Commerce collaborated with DoD to award KBR, Inc., Slingshot Aerospace, COMSPOC Corp., ExoAnalytic Solutions, Kayhan Space, NorthStar Earth & Space Inc., and the Space Data Association contracts under a pilot program for the tracking of commercial and civil satellites in medium Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit, spaceflight safety analysis and notification and anomaly detection and alerting.

This article was first published by Via Satellite sister publication Defense Daily.