Leaders from SpaceX, Arianespace, ULA, Blue Origin, and MHI on the current status of the launch market at World Space Business Week. Photo: Via Satellite

PARIS — After years of delays, new launch vehicles are finally coming online in 2024 with the first flights of United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) Vulcan rocket and the Ariane 6. Blue Origin is set to launch its inaugural New Glenn vehicle later this year, adding another layer of intrigue and competition to the market.

Europe is excited about greater access to space after the launch of Ariane 6, and Arianespace is looking forward to ramping up activities, Arianespace CCO Steven Rutgers said on a panel this week at World Space Business Week in Paris. “We are trending towards equilibrium. Within Europe, there was a couple of years where it was challenging,” Rutgers said.

Rutgers said while Ariane 6 has a big focus on the Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO) market, it can easily adapt to the constellations market.

“We are very comfortable we can serve the constellations market. We also have the GTO traditional market,” he said. “The innovation of our industry is what drives it. We see a huge increase in the constellations market. We have always worked to support our customers. We have a few opportunities in the coming years. We signed a huge contract with Kuiper, one of the biggest in our history. However, on the GEO [Geostationary] market, we see a lot of our customers are struggling. Smaller spacecraft are being designed. Our customers are experiencing a squeeze. They are facing a lot more competition. However, we are still seeing GEO orders.”

For Arianespace, it will now be about execution. The company plans to launch another Ariane 6 this year and it has the objective to ultimately reach 10 launches per year. Pricing is also interesting and shows the impact that other players have had on Arianespace’s pricing.

“If you compare Ariane 6 pricing to Ariane 5 pricing, it is 40 percent lower,” Rutgers said.

There is no doubt that SpaceX has really shaken up this market and dominated it to an extent that few could have imagined a decade ago.

Stephanie Bednarek, vice president of Commercial Sales at SpaceX, said the company had done around 90 launches so far this year. She made some very interesting comments about satellite design and the need for it to undergo an evolution in the future with Starship.

“As Starship demonstrates success, we will talk more about satellite manufacturers designs. I think there will be a shift in terms of satellite design,” Bednarek said. “For example, is 15 years the right business case for a big GEO satellite? We are happy to serve that market of course. There are some really exciting ideas out there. We are encouraging creativity. I am seeing a lot of interest of what you can do with big volume to LEO [Low-Earth Orbit]. We are encouraging customers to plan ahead.”

Jarrett Jones, senior vice president of New Glenn for Blue Origin, confirmed that Blue Origin is on track to launch New Glenn later this year, describing that as a “huge step forward” for the company. He expects New Glenn to alleviate some of the pressure in the market.

“New Glenn will minimalize the scarcity of launch providers,” Jones said. “We want to open up space for everyone. As new launchers come on, they will provide service to meet this demand. You will get even more demand when the price comes down for launch.”

The goal for the company is to have a strong and consistent rate starting next year. Jones spoke of the company “completing its development” and now it was about getting rockets off the line and launched.

“We want to be the player in the market, that the market wants. New Glenn is designed to launch 25 times. We have talked about 12 launches in 2025, and then we are looking to double it,” he added.

The theme of a new era with new rockets was prevalent. Tom Burkholder, senior director of Business Development and Sales at ULA, said the company is planning a second Vulcan launch next month, with another two further launches planned this year.

Burkholder said the evolution of use cases in this market had been interesting, highlighting the potential diversity in demand for ULA launches, with a strong emphasis now placed on launching satellites to LEO.

Nobuyuki Shiina, deputy general manager of Business Development Department, Space System, for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), also spoke of the importance of a diversity of demand, and that customers want a number of providers to launch from.

MHI made news on Wednesday with its launch deal with Eutelsat Group for multiple launches on the H3 vehicle starting in 2027. This is the first launch deal between Eutelsat and MHI and shows Eutelsat diversifying its launch providers.