Via Satellite illustration.

PARIS — SpaceX’s Starshield now looms large over the Earth observation (EO) market as industry players look to grow revenues in a market that has not always lived up to the potential and hype. 

SpaceX announced plans for its Starshield business line in late 2022, including building EO satellites to support national security efforts. Then in March of this year, Reuters reported that SpaceX received a classified contract from the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to build a network of spy satellites. 

EO players are concerned about the impact SpaceX could have on competition in this market. Speaking at World Space Business Week in Paris last week, Paolo Minciacchi, senior vice president of Telespazio, said it could be tough for European companies to compete if SpaceX targets this market even more going forward. 

“The real problem is that you have an entrepreneur who has limitless pockets and the support of the U.S. government. We will need financial support. We can’t compete with operators that can invest billions of dollars in a short space of time and have the support of the U.S. government. But, we think European governments would like to keep their own sovereignty.”

Eric Even, head of Space Digital for Airbus Defence and Space said the company takes Starshield very seriously. But he said the geospatial industry has always been very competitive and more companies could trigger new services and creativity in the market. 

“We have seen it with Starlink and SpaceX [launch] and what they have done in their respective markets,” Even said. “We continue to work on all elements of the value chain, and improve services to defense and commercial customers. I think the industry is getting more mature, and as it does, there is more opportunity for consolidation.”

Minda Suchan, vice president of Geointelligence for MDA Space, said SpaceX’s presence could grow the overall EO market and lead to consolidation. 

“It is really bringing in more players into the market. It will help grow the EO market,” Suchan said. I know [Starshield is] focused more on the defense side. But, as more people come into the EO community, there are more opportunities to partner. There is no one company that has a single solution to all missions. I think consolidation is always under consideration, I think you will see it in the future. Partnerships could lead to consolidation.”

Anders Linder, general manager of International Government for Maxar Intelligence agreed there will likely be consolidation, and said the EO market has not reached its full potential. 

“There will be more competitors coming in. It is not like one will take everything. There will be a combination of different sensors. I think it will make us better. I definitely think we will see some consolidation,” Linder said. 

Prior to the panel, consulting firm Novaspace forecast that the EO market was worth around $4.4 billion in 2019, $6.6 billion in 2023. Novaspace predicts the market will be worth $9.2 billion in 2032. 

Linder believes the market can outperform potential forecasts here. “I think that if we were to stay just doing satellites [then the forecasts would be correct]. But, I think all of the players will do much more in terms of data services and analysis. I think we will overshoot in terms of growth. We have a job to proliferate this across all the desks of commercial users.”

Andy Stephenson, senior vice president of Global Sales for BlackSky, said with everything going on in the world, demand for EO services will go up and start to scale significantly. However, he pointed out customers are being judicious about how they are spending around EO, as they think about what capabilities they need and whether they need more dynamic models.

Suchan believes the current growth forecasts are realistic, and the market has faced challenges to growth. 

“There is a lot of momentum moving us forward, but it is not moving as fast as we previously hoped,” she said. “Defense will be a very important market for EO data. There is a need and desire for more data. We also want the commercial market to continue to grow. I think things are shifting. There is interesting innovation taking place in the commercial market, and that is now moving to the defense market.”

Minciacchi believes European investment will make a difference for companies like Telespazio, citing the appointment of Lithuania’s Andrius Kubilius as European commissioner for defense and space. 

“There is a trend in Europe to develop what I call ‘a third leg’, The first leg was Galileo. The second one is IRIS², the third one could see the EC invest a huge amount of money in defense capabilities. I think this would bring an important push into the market,” Minciacchi said. 

Even said he saw the current growth forecasts as “slightly optimistic,” and sees countries starting EO adoption with a service-based approach while developing space-based assets over time. 

Stephenson echoed these statements adding, “It is expensive building, launching, operating your own satellites. It is time consuming. You could spend hundreds of millions of dollars. Those services are already commercially available. Why would you need to replicate that? You don’t need to wait years to await delivery for a satellite.”