Iran Now Has Half The Nuclear Material Required To Produce An Atomic Weapon

United Nations inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have reached an impasse in their attempts to persuade Iran that it must abandon its uranium enrichment nuclear materials production program, a new report states.

Iran, while sitting on some of the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, states that it wishes to have a nuclear electrical generating program, citing that as the reason for its producing nuclear materials. (Russia, however, has offered to supply nuclear fuel for a reactor generator, obviating any need for the Iranian fissile materials production program.)

Despite sanctions imposed on Iran, it continues its defiant production program that violates U.N. resolutions. And the IAEA has reached a dead end in attempting to persuade Iran to abandon the nuclear program, according to a new report from the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars authored by Michael Adler, public policy scholar, who expressed his own views.

"The [IAEA] has reached a dead end in getting Iran to allay fears it seeks atomic weapons," the report found.

Halfway To A Bomb

"Iran is now almost halfway to producing the 1,500 kilograms of uranium needed to fabricate a bomb under conservative estimates, and it should amass this quantity by next year," the report stated. "The 630 kilograms that the IAEA reports Iran has already enriched are theoretically enough to make a bomb, but experts believe more is needed for a first try."

The report predicts that Iran soon will amass enough material to build a bomb, and that the rest of the world will blink first, with no credible action to punish Iran for going nuclear.

To be sure, mere possession of low-enriched uranium wouldn’t suffice for building a weapon, since it would have to be processed further to bring it up to weapons grade.

"The low-enriched uranium would still have to be refined further and weaponized in order to build a bomb, and Iran protests vehemently that suspicions it intends to do this are unfair, that it only seeks the uranium as fuel for a civilian energy program," the report continued.

"The international community has … called on Iran to stop enriching," the report noted. But instead, "Iran is not only continuing this strategic work but also perfecting its ability to do it.’

All the while it has set steadily more centrifuges whirling to create the materials, however, Iran has been willing to have endless negotiations, talks that never lead to its surrendering its nuclear program.

The "diplomatic process has stalled with no progress on a compromise or ‘face-saving’ solution," the Wilson Center report observed.

"Iran perhaps feels emboldened as Russia and China, which both have extensive trade with the Islamic Republic, are blocking [U.N.} sanctions tougher than those Iran now faces."

While the weight of world opinion against its nuclear program has failed to influence Iran, it has been harmed by economic forces.

"The greatest pressure on Iran is accidental, the plummeting price of oil that cuts into the petroleum giant’s revenues," the report continued.

"But there seems to be little possibility for the West to take advantage of this pain with sanctions that would truly bite," the report predicted.

"One measure discussed is getting countries like India and Gulf states to stop sending Iran the refined gasoline it needs to keep its economy turning, but these nations do not want to lose the lucrative trade. There is, in addition, an overall wariness about inciting an oil price hike that would worsen the already disastrous world economic crisis."

And Iran is well aware that after the United States became bogged down in a hugely unpopular war in Iraq that in part propelled the election of Barack Obama as the next U.S. president, Tehran needn’t fear a U.S. invasion of Iran.

"Indeed, from a policy standpoint, all is on hold until the new administration of U.S. President-elect Barack Obama moves in," the report stated. "But diplomats worry the Iranians will use Obama’s inevitable learning curve in this complex situation to gain more time to run and improve its uranium-enriching centrifuges."

Democrat Obama, after his election last month, will take over the White House next month from Republican President Bush, who has been a strong proponent of the European Missile Defense system designed to shield Europe from missiles launched by Iran.

To read the report titled "Iran Nuclear Program Continues While UN Diplomacy Stalls" in full, please go to http://www.wilsoncenter.com on the Web.