But Missile Defense Generally, And The Airborne Laser Especially, Will Face Close Obama Scrutiny

While some military analysts have voiced concerns that President-elect Obama will slash defense spending deeply when he takes office, a new study says that may not be so, except for likely cuts in missile defense programs, especially the Airborne Laser.

Rather than seeing gigantic spending reductions, Obama after taking office Jan. 20 may instead preside over a Department of Defense with few spending increases, according to Forecast International Inc.

That in itself would represent belt tightening, after President Bush in his eight years in the presidency roughly doubled defense spending, including costs of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

That rate of increase won’t be sustained in a Democratic Obama administration, but it wouldn’t have continued even if the Republican hopeful, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, had won the Nov. 4 election, according to the report.

"Given the government’s growing deficit and the fragile state of the U.S. economy, these soaring budgets would have been deemed unaffordable no matter which party entered the White House," the report stated.

"The tremendous spending increases of the last eight years therefore appear to have come to an end, though that is not to say that sweeping cuts are looming," said Shaun McDougall, North America military market analyst with Forecast International military analysts.

The war in Iraq alone consumes about $10 billion a month, according to Obama.

If he withdraws U.S. troops from Iraq as he has pledged to do, that would reduce military outlays.

"It should be noted, however, that the military will still require significant recapitalization funds to replace lost or damaged equipment even after combat troops are withdrawn," according to McDougall.

He expects Obama to begin funding wars in the regular defense budget, instead of in emergency supplemental budgets that receive little oversight. However, that fiscal shift would build in war spending to the budget, until the wars are wound down.

McDougall noted that total defense spending would be buttressed if Obama continues a plan Bush began to expand the Army and Marine Corps by a combined 92,000 members, which would require a substantial financial commitment in terms of both personnel costs and associated equipment. Severe strains on military personnel and families from long and repeated deployments to the wars prompted that move.

"The National Guard and Reserve forces have also been strained by the wars, and will require continued investment as they prepare to face future domestic and foreign challenges," the report noted.

For all these reasons, there won’t be a precipitous drop in defense spending such as the so-called "peace dividend" that occurred under President Clinton after the Berlin wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed.

Further, there is the reset cost of fixing or replacing equipment worn out in Afghanistan and Iraq, and problems with aging hardware throughout the military, including creaky Air Force planes, McDougall noted.

Further, he said, "the Navy’s 280 deployable ships are not enough to support the service’s maritime strategy." Adm. Michael Mullen, formerly chief of naval operations and now chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, proposed a plan to boost the number of Navy ships and submarines to 313.

McDougall noted that Obama says the Pentagon "must preserve [its] unparalleled airpower capabilities to deter and defeat any conventional competitors," and adds that he would support naval recapitalization by replacing aging ships and modernizing existing platforms.

And, McDougall said, even were Obama to wish for gigantic defense spending cuts, world realities including terrorism, a newly belligerent Russia and a militarily rising China would stay his hand.

"Myriad national security threats around the world will also stave off potentially crippling budget cuts," McDougall said. "The ability to wage full-spectrum warfare is essential when potential adversaries run the gamut from decentralized non-state actors to growing conventional powers."

So, the analyst continued, Obama likely will have to propose increases in defense outlays "at or slightly above inflation in the near term, and overall spending will be higher when wartime requirements are included."

But with funding tight as the economy slumps into a recession or depression, some defense programs will face intense scrutiny, McDougall predicted.

Missile Defense Facing Cuts

That most especially would apply to missile defense programs, such as the Airborne Laser (ABL). ABL involves a heavily-modified 747-400 freighter jumbo jet platform contributed by prime contractor The Boeing Co. [BA], a laser system by Northrop Grumman Corp. [NOC], and a beam control/fire control system by Lockheed Martin Corp. [LMT].

Some defense procurement programs "will be reduced in scope or cut altogether," McDougall predicted, such as "missile defense, the Airborne Laser, and the Army’s Future Combat Systems." (Please see related story in this issue.)

Also in the crosshairs will be efforts to replace a deteriorating nuclear stockpile.

But generally, the bottom line is that defense isn’t a frill or luxury, and must be maintained in an increasingly hostile world. "The Pentagon will face the same daunting challenges on [Jan. 20] Inauguration Day that it confronts now, and any administration would be hard-pressed not to maintain a healthy defense budget," McDougall stated.