The United States should erect defenses against anti-satellite attacks, rather than merely attempting to deter assaults, according to an analyst.

Deterrence may well not work, stated Robert Butterworth, president of Aries Analytics, Inc., an Alexandria, Va., firm. He spoke at a forum held in a House office building, presented by the George C. Marshall Institute, a Washington think tank.

Defenses offer protection, while deterrence merely threatens punishment after an attack has occurred, he observed.

Since the United States has more space assets than other nations, it has more to lose, so a tit-for-tat scheme of deterrence and punishment for attacks would leave Americans the losers, he said.

Defense of space assets would work far better, he argued.

When a woman in the audience asked why he questions the value of defense deterrence so much, he replied, "Because I have a clearer view than you do" of the situation.

A similar assessment of space security came from John B. Sheldon, professor in strategic studies at the School of Advanced Air and Space Studies at Maxwell Air Force Base.

Attempting a deterrence-by-punishment strategy at this point is probably not useful, since the United States has so many more space assets than other nations, Sheldon said.

"Deterrence is inherently uncertain and probably will fail at some point," he predicted. "If it can go wrong, it will go wrong."

And passively doing nothing will only court failure, he stated.

The solution lies in defense of space assets, and yes, that will cost money. "A modicum of fiscal capital will probably have to be expended," Sheldon said. "The fiscal will should be there" to protect valuable space assets, given that the government could find $700 billion for the financial industry bailout on short notice.

Each of the speakers released papers on the topic. Sheldon, who also is a Marshall Institute fellow, presented Space Power and Deterrence: Are We Serious. Butterworth discussed Fight for Space Assets, Don’t Just Deter. Both papers may be read in full by going to http://www.marshall.org on the Web.