Medvedev Tests The Mettle Of A New American President, Announcing Russian Missiles To Be Stationed In Kaliningrad

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in his first state of the nation address before the Russian Federal Assembly, lashed out at U.S. plans to build a European Missile Defense (EMD) system and threatened to deploy Russian missiles near the EMD, directing his remarks at U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, news agencies reported.

While the U.S. Vice President-elect, Sen. Joseph Biden (D-Del.), predicted recently that foreign leaders would instigate a crisis to test Obama’s mettle within the next six months, Moscow didn’t even wait a week to rattle the Russian saber in Obama’s face.

Apparently, Medvedev wishes to discover whether he can intimidate Obama into abandoning plans to install the EMD system to shield Europe against missiles from the Middle East.

For his part, Obama spoke by phone with Medvedev. And the Russian leader will gain an opportunity to meet immediately with Obama, perhaps at the Group of 20 Nations convocation in Washington next weekend, according to Reuters, which said the face-to-face was worked out in the phone call between the two men.

But a military analyst said Medvedev, with his bombastic speech in Moscow, ironically may have guaranteed that Obama will have a tough time canceling the EMD program. While Obama previously has said he wants assurance that any European missile defense will work before deploying it, hinting that the EMD program might be jettisoned, Medvedev now has placed Obama in a corner, where the incoming U.S. president will look weak and spineless if he cancels the EMD program.

"Can the new American president afford to appear weak by acquiescing to Russia’s demand that the [EMD] not be deployed?" asked Daniel Goure, vice president of The Lexington Institute, a think tank near the Pentagon that focuses on defense and other issues.

Medvedev, with a hostility paralleling that of his mentor, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, vowed to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad, not far from Poland, to "neutralize" the EMD system.

It isn’t the first time that Russian leaders have vowed to annihilate the EMD system if it is installed in the Czech Republic (radar) and Poland (interceptors in ground silos).

Russia turns a deaf ear to statements by European and U.S. leaders that the EMD system is to guard Europe against attacks by Iranian missiles, and isn’t in any way aimed at Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are too fast for EMD interceptors to catch. The EMD system would be a variant of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system now installed in Alaska and California, developed by The Boeing Co. [BA].

The French presidency of the European Union voiced "strong concern" over Medvedev’s bellicose outburst and the prospect of Iskander missiles being deployed, adding that the Russian leader’s threats are unhelpful at a time when Europe wants and needs greater dialogue with Moscow over security issues.

The Iskander is a short-range, mobile, solid-fuel, conventional-warhead missile with a controlled flight that can take violent evasive maneuvers and release decoys.

Medvedev also threatened to install systems to jam electronics on EMD interceptors.

His belligerent blast as well came as Russia prepares to meet Friday with leaders of the 27 European Union nations at Nice, France.

Medvedev’s latest fist-shaking also comes after Russia moved beyond harsh words to take action by invading the independent, formerly Soviet Union-bloc state of Georgia.

Poles Vindicated On EMD

For Poland, Medvedev’s warlike comments prove that Warsaw was well-advised to cut a deal where the United States will install the EMD interceptors on Polish soil, and Poland will be sold U.S. Patriot air defense missiles (Raytheon Co. [RTN]).

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told the Polish Parliament that the threat from Moscow "just shows that our decision to protect our air space with U.S. help is a correct one," according to Reuters.

While the Czech and Polish administrative branches of government already have signed agreements to host the EMD, the parliaments of those nations have yet to ratify the deal.

Also, the U.S. Congress has restricted funding for the EMD system site construction until those parliamentary approvals are provided, and until the EMD interceptors are tested, which could take years. Meanwhile, Iran before then may have nuclear weapons and missiles capable of striking Europe.

Although Sikorski noted Obama previously questioned whether the EMD will kill enemy missiles as expected, the Polish leader expects Obama to build the system once it is proved effective.

Although Russia may have hoped that invading Georgia would terrify Czech and Polish leaders into canceling plans to host the EMD, that invasion and Medvedev’s latest remarks may have the opposite effect, causing the Czechs and Poles to leap into the arms of the United States for protection from a similar Russian attack.

Medvedev’s pugilistic stance, aside from attempting to intimidate Obama, also may have aimed to cow the larger, more affluent nations of Western Europe, which depend on Russia for oil supplies. And, at least in Germany, his bluster may have had the intended effect, according to a report in The Washington Post.

For Obama, this outburst from Russia comes at an unwelcome time. He has just been painted as a novice Democrat unschooled in world and military affairs and lacking the spine to stand up to foreign leaders, in campaign speeches by his Republican opponent in the Nov. 4 general election, Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

Another point in Medvedev’s speech, which rambled on for more than an hour, was a brief mention that he might press to extend the four-year terms of the Russian president to six years, and terms of Duma members to five years. That might precede Putin’s returning to the presidency.

Medvedev said Russia had cancelled its previous plans to take three missile regiments out of service in the central part of the country, while denying that Russia is embarked upon a new arms race, according to the Chinese Xinhua news agency.

Threat Isn’t Disappearing

Another bar to Obama abruptly deciding to cancel the EMD is that it is designed to counter a threat of missiles being fired from the Middle East. And that threat is growing, not disappearing.

Pentagon leaders have explained that the EMD must be built to counter rogue nations in the Middle East such as Iran that might be tempted to fire missiles at Europe or the United States, or to pressure Western nations by threatening an attack.

Iran has persisted in producing nuclear materials, using thousands of centrifuges, even though industrialized nations and the United Nations have responded by imposing sanctions on Iran.

As well, Iran has developed or procured missiles with ever-longer ranges; launched multiple missiles in salvo tests; launched a missile from a submerged submarine; and said it will develop a space program, which would involve much the same technology as an intercontinental ballistic missile.

Finally, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Israel should be wiped from the map, and that Israel soon shall cease to exist.

Obama last week received his first classified national security briefing, which would include details on the Iranian threat and how EMD would counter it. Obama appeared to have been sobered by the briefing, according to news reports.

In another sign that foreign leaders won’t give Obama any honeymoon, an Iranian leader excoriated the newly-elected American leader for saying that Iranian development of a nuclear weapon is "unacceptable."

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Lariajani said the United States needs more than cosmetic changes from the Bush administration policies toward Iran, assailing Obama’s comments as "a step in the wrong direction," according to news reports.

If the issue of the EMD, Russia and Iran is proving to be difficult for Obama, he also must remember that waiting in the wings will be the North Korean threat; other Russian adventures including resumption of strategic patrols by nuclear-armed bombers and submarines and exercises with Venezuela; and at times difficult dealings with a rising China arming itself so that it can take on the United States militarily.

These and other military issues, including deciding how to end the war in Iraq, as mountainous as they may be, could prove easier to deal with than the U.S. economic calamity that shows no signs of abating. And speaking of China, there also is the gargantuan U.S. global trade deficit that has put the United States trillions of dollars in debt to foreigners. Finally, while he’s at it, there is the matter of attempting to broker peace in the Middle East.