McCain In 2004 Sponsored Bill Containing Retirement Of Shuttle

As voters prepare to pick the next president in the election tomorrow, a key question regardless of who wins is what the next president will do about the gaping gap in the U.S. space program, where NASA for half a decade won’t be able to transport a single astronaut to low Earth orbit, much less to the moon and planets.

President Bush has ordered the space shuttle fleet to cease flying in 2010, less than two years hence, and the replacement Orion-Ares spaceship system won’t lift off on its first manned flight until 2015, though NASA is working to a target of September 2014. (Please see full story in this issue.)

Both Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, the Democratic presidential nominee who has been leading in the polls, and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican hopeful who fights well in the underdog role, have indicated they might add an extra space shuttle mission, or more, to the current manifest.

But they both, in times past, have endorsed cuts in NASA programs.

Obama at one point would have cut NASA funding to support education programs, a position he since has changed after discussions with Florida officials who say the state will suffer as space shuttle flights end and jobs are eliminated.

McCain, for his part, in prior years has been a key figure in cementing the five-year gap in U.S. space transportation capabilities into law.

While McCain throughout his campaign this year has portrayed himself as a maverick, and distanced himself from Bush, on the five-year gap he supported Bush.

For example, the Arizona senator was chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee in 2004 when he introduced a NASA Reauthorization Act that called for the gap. The panel oversees NASA.

In part, halting shuttle flights frees money to help the Constellation Program develop the Orion crew-carrying space capsule, the Ares rocket that will propel Orion into space, and the Altair lunar lander, instead of increasing the total NASA budget to permit flying the shuttle while that future spaceship is developed.

McCain, as he introduced the reauthorization measure for himself and other senators, was philosophical, saying that it sometimes may not be possible for an agency to fund all that it wishes.

On the one hand, he endorsed Bush’s vision for space exploration, including Orion missions to the moon, where a lunar outpost would be established, and manned missions to Mars.

But McCain also worried about costs, noting the bill would institute a review processes to lessen chances of cost overruns.

"I realize that concerns have been raised regarding some of the cuts that NASA is proposing to pay for the President’s exploration vision," McCain said. "In order to pay for this new program, we must realize that there is limited funding and that NASA funding has to be re-allocated. However, this bill should not be construed as supporting each and every proposed reduction. Instead, the bill simply would authorize the funding levels by the major budget accounts."

He took a similar divided view toward funding other programs as well.

For example, he worried about the Hubble Space Telescope dying for lack of a servicing mission, but said the space shuttles couldn’t be used for that, and the mission could be performed only if some other means such as robots could be found to fix the eye in the sky. Years later, he did agree to another shuttle mission to refurbish Hubble, a flight that should have lifted off last month but has been delayed. (Please see full story in this issue.)

It is vital, he said, to mitigate risks and costs wherever possible.

Obama, in positions he has taken, supports the Constellation Program.

The Orion space capsule uses some previously invented technologies from the Apollo program, in a spacecraft being developed by Lockheed Martin Corp. [LMT]. Orion and the Altair lunar lander will be boosted by the Ares rocket that will have various components developed by The Boeing Co. [BA], Alliant Techsystems Inc. [ATK], and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne, a unit of United Technologies Corp. [UTX].

Obama also favors completing construction of the International Space Station, which should be finished in 2010. Space shuttles are required to haul huge structural components to orbit for the station.

The Illinois senator also favors continuing the many unmanned space probes now touring the solar system. (Please see story on the MESSENGER spacecraft flyby of Mercury in this issue.)

Regardless of which candidate wins, there is a huge caveat in their plans for space, and their plans for other federal programs as well, including defense:

The U.S. economy probably has tumbled into a recession, according to witnesses last month at a congressional Joint Economic Committee hearing, though the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private organization in Massachusetts that decides such matters, hasn’t yet officially decided there is a downturn in the output of goods and services.

That economic weakness means government spending on programs for the unemployed will soar. The unemployment rate has risen from about 4 percent in late 2000 to almost 7 percent.

Further, economic weakness means that government revenues are plummeting.

Add on the hundreds of billions of dollars for economic stimulus programs and financial industry bailouts, and experts say that budget deficits (and consequent government borrowing from investors) each year may surpass $1 trillion.

That stands in contrast to the $238 billion budget surplus, not deficit, that Washington enjoyed in fiscal 2000.

All of this means that promises that McCain and Obama have made during the long presidential election campaign may go out the window, regardless of which of them is chosen tomorrow to enter the White House in January.

(For a summation of McCain and Obama on the issue of ballistic missile defense programs, please see Space & Missile Defense Report, Monday, Oct. 27, 2008.)