[Satellite News 10-03-08] The cost of the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) has jumped nearly $6 billion due to faulty management of the program by the U.S. Department of Defense, according to a report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) released Sept. 30.
    The Pentagon had expected to launch the satellite surveillance by 2004 at a cost of $4.2 billion, but the launch of the first satellite now is expected in 2009, and the total cost of the project is expected to reach $10 billion, according to the Center for Defense Information.
    "SBIRS has been restructured several times because it underestimated the technical complexity and inherent challenges associated with software, among other technical elements," Cristina Chaplain, director of acquisition and sourcing management for GAO and co-author of "Goals for Resolving Space Based Infrared System Software Problems Are Ambitious” (GAO-08-1073), said in a statement. "Neither the software assessment conducted to determine the confidence of producing software nor the independent reviewers who examined the redesign approach indicated that the current goals were executable. … Software experts, independent reviewers as well as the government officials we interviewed expressed concern over the aggressive schedule and questionable schedule margin, which the Defense Contract Management Agencybelieves is insufficient."
    The Pentagon approached the GAO in 2006 to review SBIRS, ad the GAO identified an array of problems related to software development, expenditure of management reserves, and deferred requirements in an earlier report titled "Defense Acquisitions: Space Based Infrared System High Program and its Alternative" (GAO-07-1088R). However, the GAO claims the report did very little to curb and restructure spending.
    Following the GAO’s work in 2006, SBIRS experienced another setback in January 2007 when the flight software for the first satellite of the network, GEO-1, failed testing. In April 2007, the Department of Defense determined that the software failure was caused by design issues that affected the timing of stored programs, among other problems. Afterwards, the Pentagon went back to the GAO to conduct a study on SBIRS’ software-related issues, and the agency once again found problems with the financial handling of the SBIRS program.
    "The expenditure of management reserves has been particularly problematic because these
funds were being rapidly spent," said Chaplain. "Further, while [the office of the Secretary of Defense’s] plan to assess software and its willingness to revise the cost and schedule goals appear plausible, we believe this approach falls well short of a more reasonable approach to increase the confidence of success for the reasons we cited."
    The GAO’s latest SBIRS assessment also asserts that a major concern for the entire SBIRS program is that industry confidence in producing the necessary software in time to meet the estimated launch goal of GEO-1 in December 2009 is low. The program’s technical contractors — Aerospace Corp., Galorath Inc. and Lockheed Martin —stated in the report that they are not confident that software can be developed within the tight time frames established by the Department of Defense.  Lockheed Martin said it is only 50 percent sure of meeting the deadline, Aerospace Corp. said it is less than 10 percent sure and Galorath said it is less than 5 percent confident in production by December 2009.
    "If productivity on software does not materialize, or problems occur during testing and integration beyond what was marginally planned for, then it could cost an additional $400 million for each year of schedule slippage,” the GAO said.
    In light of the program’s risks, poor performance history, and technical challenges expected during integration, the GAO maintains that establishing goals that are based on more realistic assumptions would place the Pentagon in a better position to achieve cost and schedule goals with greater confidence.