The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R), which already has seen its price tag soar more than $5 billion, stands in danger of seeing further cost increases, missed schedules and performance shortfalls, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported.

Reform moves should be imposed on the program so that it avoids the troubles that plagued other satellite constellation programs, David Powner GAO director of information technology management issues, told Congress. "This new series is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028," said Powner, who testified before the House Science Committee.

Powner urged the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini-stration (NOAA), which is overseeing the development of the satellite system, to take several steps to avoid further problems, including establishing realistic cost and schedule estimates, ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the system’s components prior to key decisions, providing sufficient management at government and contractor levels, and performing adequate senior executive oversight to ensure mission success, sister publication Defense Daily reported.

"Until it completes these activities, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will repeat the increased cost, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls that have plagued past procurements," Powner said.

GOES-R does not need any further problems, Powner indicated. Earlier woes have forced NOAA to cut the program deeply, even as costs soared.

"At the time of our review, NOAA was nearing the end of the preliminary design phase of its GOES-R system … which [once] was estimated to cost $6.2 billion and scheduled to have the first satellite ready for launch in 2012," according to the GAO.

GOES-R satellites will carry instruments that improve the ability to observe the Earth and the sun and is expected to lead to more accurate predictions of the intensity and landfall of hurricanes with longer lead times than today. GOES-R also will carry a coastal waters imager capable of viewing the entire U.S. coastline every three hours at high resolution, allowing scientists to evaluate the ocean’s biological productivity, detect harmful algae blooms and assess coastal zones after severe storms for protection of fragile ecosystems.

Teams led by Boeing Co., Lockheed Martin Corp. and a combined Northrop Grumman Corp.-Raytheon Co. effort are competing for the GOES-R contract. The three teams won $10 million, six-month contracts by NOAA in October 2005 to define the next-generation weather satellites.

The goal of the program definition and risk-reduction contract is to analyze the GOES-R requirements and develop a solution to meet those requirements through advanced sensing technology, ground data processing, communications and command and control.

While NOAA expected to award a contract in August 2007 to develop the system, recent analyses of the GOES-R program cost — which in May the program office estimated could reach $11.4 billion — have led the agency to consider reducing the scope of requirements for the satellite series, Powner said. "Since our report was issued, NOAA officials told GAO that the agency has made a decision to reduce the scope of the program to a minimum of two satellites and to reduce the complexity of the program by canceling a technically complex instrument," he said.

NOAA has attempted to bring the program under control, Powner said. "NOAA has taken steps to implement lessons learned from past satellite programs, but more remains to be done," he said.

Noting that prior satellite programs — including a prior GOES series, a polar-orbiting environmental satellite series, and various military satellite programs — often experienced technical challenges, cost overruns, and schedule delays, Powner warned that must not be permitted in GOES-R.

"NOAA has established plans to address these lessons by conducting independent cost estimates, performing preliminary studies of key technologies, placing resident government offices at key contractor locations, and establishing a senior executive oversight committee," Powner noted approvingly.

But that may not suffice. "Many steps remain to fully address these lessons," Powner concluded, and until NOAA completes those steps, GOES-R remains at risk of further cost overruns plus more delays and performance shortfalls.