Telesat’s headquarters in downtown Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Photo: Telesat

While Telesat has always been optimistic on government prospects for its Lightspeed Low-Earth Orbit constellation, “tectonic shifts” in the geopolitical landscape have made the operator even more bullish on national security opportunities, CEO Dan Goldberg said. 

“Recent fairly tectonic shifts in the geopolitical environment are making us even more bullish on sovereign national security requirements — requirements we always believed were significant — but now expect will provide an even stronger tailwind as countries increase their defense spending and look to diversify the allied governments and service providers they work with,” Goldberg said. 

Goldberg spoke with investors on Thursday during Telesat’s 2024 results call as Telesat reported a 19% revenue decline in 2024, expecting even greater decline in its Geostationary Orbit (GEO) business in 2025. 

U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs against Canadian goods, called for Canada to become the 51st state, and considered changes to how the U.S. participates in the NATO alliance. Canada has retaliated with tariffs of its own, and Canadian sovereignty and security has become a larger part of the conversation in the nation’s upcoming election.  

The province of Ontario, for instance, cancelled a contract with Starlink for a rural broadband program in response to U.S. tariffs. 

Goldberg said discussions with government officials are “much more tangible” and “have a greater immediacy,” with changes in geopolitics, and as Lightspeed gets closer to launch. 

“We’re hearing a lot from political leaders from all parties, whether it’s the Conservative Party of Canada or the Liberal Party of Canada. They’ve been articulating their views around the need to have greater defense spending, to accelerate that spending to achieve NATO spending targets much sooner than what was earlier envisioned, [and] doing it in a way that supports Canadian industry,” he said. 

Goldberg highlighted how Lightspeed will enable connectivity in the critical Arctic region, pointing to the Canadian Armed Forces’ Enhanced Satellite Communication Project as a particular contract opportunity. 

He sees opportunity for Lightspeed to connect forward operating bases, icebreaker ships and other ships, fighter jets, UAVs, drones, and other platforms. 

The government of Canada is backing the Lightspeed constellation with financing, which was finalized in September of last year, enabling Telesat to move to the manufacturing phase of the constellation. 

Telesat has also recently signed Lightspeed customer agreements with Space Norway, Orange, and ADN Telecom. Goldberg said the backlog for Lightspeed is in the range of 600 million Canadian dollars ($419 million). 

He said by the end of this year, Lightspeed backlog could eclipse the company’s Geostationary Orbit (GEO) backlog, which stood at CA$1.1 billion ($770 million) at the end of 2024. 

Telesat Reports 20% Revenue Decline, Forecasts More Declines in ’25 

Telesat saw a steep decline in revenue of 19% in 2024 compared to the prior year as broadcast revenue declined, and Starlink impacted the company’s enterprise business. Telesat reported CA$571 million ($399 million) in revenue in 2024. Despite the decline, Telesat’s revenue did beat expected guidance for the year. 

The decline was due to reductions from North American broadcast customers combined with lower enterprise revenues from customers in the aero and maritime markets, Latin America, and the Canadian and United States governments. 

Net loss in 2024 was CA$302 million, ($211 million), compared to a net income of CA$583 million ($407 million) the prior year. Telesat said this was due to shifts in foreign exchange rates on the Canadian dollar value of U.S. dollar denominated debt, the recognition of C-band proceeds in 2023, higher impairment charges on orbital slots and certain satellites, and reduced revenue.

Telesat is expecting even steeper revenue decline in 2025, projecting 27% decline at the midpoint. Telesat projects 2025 revenues to be between CA$405 million and CA$425 million ($283 million to $296 million). 

Goldberg said Telesat expects the “difficult operating environment in the GEO business to continue.” He said half of the decline comes from the broadcast business, the other half from decreased enterprise and consulting revenues. 

“Roughly 20% of that is coming from customers serving the maritime and to a lesser extent, the aero markets – principally owing to competition from Starlink,” Goldberg said. “Other meaningful contributors are reduced revenues from an Indonesian government-funded broadband program, where a new Indonesian-owned satellite is replacing some of the services we provided.”

Telesat will see a full year of lower rates on the Nimiq 5 satellite with Dish Network’s renewed deal. The operator also ended service with Shaw Communications last year on the Anik F2 satellite, and faces an expiration this year on its Anik F3 contract with Dish. Goldberg said that Anik F3 has come to the end of its station-kept life, and is being put into an inclined orbit and will only be used for customers that can be supported from an inclined orbit. 

Goldberg noted that Telesat hasn’t ordered a new GEO satellite in nine years, and some of its satellites are reaching the end of their operational life.

“Away from the LEO/GEO dynamics in the market, there are some issues that are more Telesat-specific because we haven’t been able to close a compelling business case for a new GEO satellite in quite some time. We saw where this market was going,” Goldberg said. “I still think there might be another opportunity or two for a new GEO satellite in the future, we’ll see.”