While there is a sense of optimism across the satellite industry, from the variety of opinions expressed during SATELLITE 2009, it is clear that there is no consensus on whether 2009 will be a year of growth or a year of hanging on.
 
Overall, the industry enjoyed much success in 2008 and has not felt the full impact of the economic recession. The long-term contract and backlog structure of the trade may even extend the cushion into 2010. Some executives say the overall satellite business could escape the full force of the recession entirely — if the economy begins to improve by summer 2010. Other executives tried not to set any expectations, saying they are hopeful but careful.
 
So with the show behind us, it is time to start keeping track of which business models are going to make an impact in the coming years. The companies to watch in 2009 are the ones with leaders see the year as an opportunity. From these companies, we expect to see aggressive business moves, more focus on regional development and less focus on consumer products, and a strong focus on the Ka- and X-band markets. We also expect 2009 to be the true test whether or not satellite-terrestrial hybrid cellular services are going to be viable.
 
The other important battle we expect to see this year is the satellite industry’s fight for money related to the U.S. government’s broadband stimulus plan. Competitors in the terrestrial market have the clear advantage with influential lobbying campaigns, a more localized market that appeals to state and local governments, and the fact that they have convinced a considerable amount of people outside of the industry that satellite is slow, expensive and outdated. Will satellite be left out of the rural broadband roll-out? By SATELLITE 2010, we’ll know for sure.
 
However, the relatively low volume of discussion at SATELLITE 2009 on the matter gives us a sign that the industry may be preparing for exclusion and examining opportunities elsewhere.