[Satellite News – 3-17-08] A Proton Breeze M rocket suffered its second failure in six months when a problem with the vehicle’s second stage left SES Americom‘s AMC-14 short of its intended orbit March 15.
    The satellite, which news reports claim is 8,000 kilometers short of its planned altitude of 36,000 kilometers, is in good shape, but correcting the orbit could affect the lifetime of the spacecraft, which has been leased by Echostar Corp. to provide pay-TV services for the next 10 years.
    “Since the spacecraft is stable and performing nominally, albeit in the wrong orbit, we have some time to carefully evaluate the consequences of it, to carefully evaluate all available alternatives to whatever maneuver we are going to be conducting,” said Yves Feltes, an SES spokesman. “This is an ongoing process between SES and the manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, and until we have taken the decision on what corrective action we are going to take, there is not much we can say. It is a very challenging situation. In all of the various scenarios to redirect the spacecraft, onboard fuel will have to be used so there is likely to be an impact on the expected lifetime of the satellite. While we are not in emergency situation that would force us to act within the next 24 hours, salvaging the spacecraft is the top priority.”
    Fran Slimmer, a spokeswoman for ILS, said the latest problem is not related to a September 2007 failure, which occurred during the first stage. An investigation determined that a damaged pyro firing cable caused the failure that destroyed JSAT Corp.’s JCSAT-11 satellite. A pair of Proton missions had been performed since that failure. In October, a Russian government mission placed three Glonass satellites in orbit, and in November, an ILS mission orbited the Sirius 4 satellite for SES Sirius.
    “A Russian State Commission has begun the process of determining the reasons for the anomaly,” ILS said in a statement. “ILS will release details when data become available.” ILS also will form its own Failure Review Oversight Board.
    The failure is more of a blow to EchoStar than to SES, said Sarah Simon, a satellite equity analyst at Morgan Stanley. “The satellite may be recoverable, but if not, is insured and is only one of a fleet of 38 SES satellites. … By contrast, this seems like more of a blow to EchoStar, which needed the capacity to expand its HDTV (high-definition) offering, without which it may be at a competitive disadvantage to DirecTV and the U.S. cable operators.”

Launch Customers Have Few Options

    Marco Caceres, senior analyst and director of space studies for Teal Group Corp., said the failure was more similar to the 2006 Arabsat 4A failure, in which a foreign particle blocked a booster pump in the oxidizer system of the Breeze M upper stage, causing its engine to shut down prematurely and place the satellite in the wrong orbit. Caceres does not think that there is a design flaw inherent to the Proton Breeze M, but he’s concerned about the number of failures ILS has suffered.
    “There’s been enough failures having to do with the Breeze M that would lead me to be concerned if I was a customer,” Caceres said. “Just the fact that you’ve got three Proton failures, that would be a concern, especially now that you no longer have Lockheed Martin involved in the [company]. Lockheed Martin sold their shares back in September of 2006, and since then you’ve had two failures. In the past you could go to someone in Lockheed Martin and say, ‘Can you allay my fears?’ and now you’re having to deal with representatives from Ukrainian and Russian firms.” ILS also had offered Lockheed Martin’s Atlas 5 commercially before the company severed its ties with ILS.
    In December, ILS President Frank McKenna told Satellite News that the launch provider had a “very full manifest in 08 [and] a good manifest in 09.”  With the Proton launch vehicle grounded until completion of the failure investigation, ILS’s customers have very limited options. Right now Arianespace is the only real competitor to the Proton launch vehicle, said Caceres, however, Arianespace also has a full manifest for 2008.
    “The launch failure will now need to be investigated before ILS can recommence services,” said Simon. “This won’t impact Eutelsat, which has no ILS launches scheduled for 2008. SES has Astra 1M planned to launch via ILS in the spring, but as replacement for Astra 1H, which does not expire until 2012, a delay to 1M should not be a particular problem for SES, in our view, and certainly should not cause any financial disruption to the group.”
    Caceres said it might be time for Boeing Co. to consider reentering the commercial launch market. Boeing took its Delta 4 launch vehicle out of the commercial launch market in July 2003 citing low demand and high costs. “If I was Boeing I’d consider getting the Delta 4 back in the market,” he said. “They have the opportunity to win two or three fairly easy contracts. This situation has changed, and I don’t think they said they would never compete. Pulling the Delta 4 was a temporary move until they saw the market improve. It’s kind of a sellers market, Intelsat or Inmarsat, they’re going to pay whatever it takes to get their satellites on orbit. For them, it makes more sense to pay top dollar than to have the satellite in storage.”