It is, quite simply, a spectacular 18 seconds of video. The explosion that destroyed Sea Launch’s Zenit-3SL rocket and SES New Skies’ NSS-8 satellite, creating a fireball that engulfed the Odyssey Launch platform, are a stark reminder that launching a satellite remains a difficult task.
The good news is that Sea Launch personnel were on the launch platform within 48 hours of the failure and that “the integrity and functionality of essential marine, communications and crew support systems remains intact,” according to the company.
But the failure has left Sea Launch, the launch industry and many satellite operators in a state of uncertainty.
2007 was scheduled to be Sea Launch’s biggest year, with six planned launches. Now, one analysts sees the company performing no more than three, and that’s only if the investigation of the incident and repair of all facilities goes perfectly.
That is a bet few would be willing to take. A failure can ground a launch provider’s operations for several months in even the smoothest of investigations. Sea Launch’s unique method of operations, launching from a converted oil rig in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, adds another layer of complexity to the recovery.
The failure also raises questions about the Land Launch venture, scheduled to begin operations in 2007 with essentially the same Zenit-3SL rocket.
And in an industry where officials now tout reliability above all other factors, such a high-profile failure will raise concerns from customers, meaning that while technicians figure out how to get the operations back online, company officials must spend that time soothing the concerns of current and potential customers.
“This is a bad time to see Sea Launch struggle in terms of what the management and market dynamics are,” says Max Engal, an analyst with Frost & Sullivan. “I’m sure that Sea Launch will swear that this won’t stop them, but [majority shareholder] Boeing almost closed [its own] satellite production,” and “they’re being very selective about where to leverage their technology and expertise.”
Sea Launch’s customers also are left scrambling. SES New Skies says it will not suffer any immediate financial impact and will make due with its existing capacity. The new Intelsat also has plenty of on-orbit assets available in case of any launch delays, but with missions also scheduled aboard Land Launch, the operator will be paying close attention to the Sea Launch investigation.
But smaller companies such as Thuraya and Hughes Network Systems may not be able to wait too long for Sea Launch to return to operations.
One thing in Sea Launch’s favor in terms of keeping its customers is there are few other options for available launches.
For years, commercial launch industry officials cited severe overcapacity in their industry. But the industry has spent several years downsizing, and now many of those same executives say they have no excess room to spare on their manifests.
But they certainly are looking for ways to squeeze in a few more missions if any Sea Launch customers want to make the switch, and this failure may also open up some commercial launch opportunities for launch providers that have traditionally not been players in the international commercial market.
While the answers to all these questions may not be known by SATELLITE 2007, the events of Jan. 30 raise the possibility of one of the most entertaining and informative launch panels at any industry gathering in years.