After a few frustrating years of slow launch rates due to a depressed commercial launch market as well as satellite manufacturing delays, Sea Launch is on target to perform six missions in 2006, a single-year record for the commercial provider.

The previous high for Sea Launch, which lofts satellites into orbit aboard the Zenit-3SL rocket from a floating platform at the equator, was four missions in 2005.

Now the international joint venture is on target, with four launches already on the books in 2006 and missions scheduled for October and December, says Rob Peckham, who was named president and general manager of Sea Launch Co. LLC in June.

Peckham, who joined Sea Launch in 2000 as senior director of sales and marketing, experienced the slow times first hand, but feels confident that the worst is over. "We see a continued bright future for Sea Launch," he says. "We see a bright future for this entire industry going forward. I think gone are the days, at least in the near term, when we’re going to be seeing 12, 13 or 14 commercial launches a year. Going forward, we’re looking at anywhere from 18 to 21 launches. Our goal is to continue to launch six times a year."

With the maritime part of his operations running smoothly, Peckham can now concentrate on Land Launch. The company’s offering for small and medium satellites is scheduled to perform its first launch in summer 2007 with the PAS-11 satellite. "We are in the next phase of our evolution," Peckham says.

Peckham spoke with Satellite News Assistant Editor Jason Bates at Euroconsult’s World Satellite Business Week in Paris.

Satellite News: Are you satisfied with the improvement in the pace of operations for Sea Launch and the manifest?

Peckham: Philosophically, as the leader of Sea Launch, I am never satisfied with the market. However, we are extremely confident that the industry is going in the right direction. The LEO constellation frenzy and then the decline where the launches dropped down to 10 to 12 for a few years and the resulting price war is over. Right now what we’re seeing in the industry is consolidation, which is very good, [and] the emergence and entrance of financial institutions into the business, which I believe is a tremendous vote of confidence in the strength of this business. I also see satellite manufacturers rebounding from the situation that had supply and demand upside down, [and] now signing up contracts with schedules that are much more in line with what they can deliver. You take all that together and I see a much more stable industry today and going forward.

Satellite News: How frustrating have satellite delays been for the launch providers?

Peckham: It was a tough time five or six years ago. For everybody in this industry it was a tumultuous time. The situation was a combination of a lot of things. The significant falloff in demand for commercial communication satellites led to some economic pressures [and] caused them to sign up to schedules that, honest to God, they believed they could meet. I don’t think there is any satellite provider out there that would sign up for something they couldn’t do. But the nature of the satellites caused development delays and that impacted everybody — the insurance community, the launch community and the end users. I think that through the consolidation and the maturity of our business we’re back to a more reasonable lead time and more reasonable schedules, schedules that everybody can meet, and that’s a function of not signing up to such significant challenges.

Satellite News: Will Sea Launch have to make any improvements to meet the new schedule demands?

Peckham: We’re looking at cycle time-reduction initiatives that we are putting in place more for operational flexibility than for added capacity. If we get added capacity out of that, great.

Satellite News: Will there be any return to the possibility of performing two launches on a single trip to the equator?

Peckham: It’s still in my mind somewhere — somewhere way in the back. We would see that as less in the way of schedule assurance than just launching one satellite when it shows up. If we have to wait for two, I think schedule assurance is diminished a little bit.

Satellite News: Will there be any needs to increase the launch capacity of the Zenit-3SL?

Peckham: There are no plans for us to increase the capacity of the system much beyond the greater than 6-metric ton capability we have now. That being said, we’re constantly looking at ways to tweak and improve, and the market will drive what we implement going forward. We have looked at creating the lift capability going forward. It requires an investment. Not much of an investment, but it is an investment, and the market has to be ready for that. What we have done in response to market demand is introduce our Land Launch system, which would accommodate the small- to medium-class satellite launches.

Satellite News: Will growth in satellite size require you to make these investments?

Peckham: I think there is an aspect of the market that will continue to keep growing. You have your direct-to-home providers and the digital audio radio systems and broadband that require bigger, really meaty satellites. It’s the replacement satellites that will be smaller and the concentrated footprints that will only need small to medium satellites. I think if the satellite manufacturers had unlimited mass and volume of the satellites that we could put in orbit, they would build gigantic satellites, but they are somewhat constrained by what is available in the market.

Satellite News: Has the demand for Land Launch been lessened with the consolidation of the satellite operators?

Peckham: We’ve been humbled by the level of customer interest in Land Launch, and I think that has been driven by the success we’ve seen in Sea Launch, which is a virtually identical system. We have six commitments that go through 2008, and the new Intelsat is still as committed to their launches as when it was Panamsat. It’s a mutually beneficial business arrangement.

Satellite News: Do you still see the commercial market as a battle among three providers, or do you think some other competitors will emerge soon?

Peckham: Near term, I would say no. Long term, it’s impossible to say or to speculate. SpaceX and the Falcon 9 could become a viable competitor. China Great Wall is always looming, though they are somewhat hampered by the U.S. export restrictions, however there are satellites out there that have no U.S. components. With the emergence of the United Launch Alliance, I don’t know to what extent a commercial Delta or Atlas would be competitive. I don’t know to what extent the Japanese will be competitive in the commercial market. But they are all good systems and all provide access to space.

Satellite News: Will Sea Launch ever be able to crack the U.S. government launch market?

Peckham: For our last mission, Koreasat 5, we provided a spectacular launch for a hybrid satellite that has commercial and military communication applications.

Now relative to the U.S. government, Sea Launch faces more than one hurdle and our goal has always been simply to make the United States government — the Department of Defense and NASA — aware of our abilities, and that we’re standing ready to provide launch services if called upon… We recognize that law prohibits that at this point, but it’s not our place nor is it our desire to change the law.

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