[Satellite TODAY Insider 01-11-11] Morgan Stanley analysts expect the satellite industry’s strong 2010 overall performance to continue in 2011, as satellite stocks rose by an average of 20 percent in 2010 with limited negative impact outside non-core equipment sales, according to the firm’s media equity report released Jan. 10.
    Morgan Stanley Analyst Patrick Wellington highlighted SES and Eutelsat gains as an example of what is to come. “We expect SES, with 22 percent revenue growth, and Eutelsat, with 23 percent, to outperform the media sector in 2011. In the near term, we expect positive full-year 2010 results, with both benefiting from additional capacity added in 2010. This includes Eutelsat’s Ka-Sat as well as new satellite launches due in 2011,” he said.
    Wellington’s medium-term satellite industry outlook also is positive, forecasting 6 percent growth, driven by incremental capacity required by the broadcast market, data services and military operations. “With an average of 6 percent revenue and 12 percent EPS growth in 2010 through 2013, we see more upside to current valuations with additional value creation potential through debt deleveraging and selective acquisitions.”
    Several analysis firms have listed similar reasons for why satellite stocks have remained attractive throughout the recession — strong demand for transponder capacity, the take-up of HD channels, growth in emerging markets and government services all have been cited as satellite’s top growth drivers.
    Despite an expected 20 percent industry-wide increase in satellite capacity by 2011, Wellington expects utilization rates to remain greater 80 percent. “One driver of future demand is 3-D TV, where there have been a number of channel launches by operators in 2010. This is clearly a positive trend, as new 3-D channels require 30 to 50 percent incremental transponder capacity relative to HD. While FSS is a high-tech product, it is nuts and bolts as far as its customers are concerned. Yet the crucial service that it provides is very cheap in relative terms,” said Wellington.

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