While 3-D TV continues to dominate headlines and discussions due to early efforts by broadcasters such as DirecTV, Discovery and ESPN, many industry analysts remain cautious about the potential take-up of 3-D TV.
    “ABI is being a bit cautious with our forecast for 3-D-ready TV sales. We believe that the market will grow, but TV manufacturers are placing the technology in TVs without having a pull from consumers at this point,” said Jason Blackwell, senior analyst, ABI Research. “We have not completely finalized our 3-D TV forecast, but by 2015, 3-D TV will reach about 18 percent penetration of worldwide, flat panel-TV sales. In markets like North America and Western Europe, penetration will exceed 20 percent of flat panel-TV sales. We believe that HD and Internet connectivity will be more significant drivers for consumer purchases than 3-D alone.”
    Maxim Baudry, a satellite analyst at French telecoms consultancy, Idate, said, “It is only after 2015 that we think 3-D will become more popular, when price of TV sets decrease and the technology becomes more mature. There are a number of reasons why expect the take-up to be slow. Firstly, with the current economic context, people try to avoid expenses that they consider not so important. Secondly, a majority of households have already spent money for a brand new HDTV set, and they are not willing to spend immediately money for a new 3-D TV set. Thirdly, prices of 3-D TV sets are extremely high right now. Finally, 3-D content is not widely available yet on premium channels.”
    One of the questions now is does it make sense for broadcasters to make aggressive moves into 3-D TV? “Most leading broadcasters are considering 3-D and the implications of acquiring and offering 3-D content,” said Anna Hunt, senior analyst, IMS Research. “The cost for 3-D content production is quite high, and penetration of 3-D TV sets in the home is currently low, so everyone is taking cautious steps, looking to identify what type of content would benefit most from 3-D and how they can deliver 3-D content using existing infrastructure.”
    The additional effort required to produce 3-D programming and making sure it is high quality also is a detriment to many broadcasters, said Blackwell. “I don’t think it makes sense for everything to be broadcast in 3-D, and in many cases the effort would be better spent on HD,” he said.
    The relatively low HD penetration in many major markets in Europe may also have an impact on the take-up of 3-D TV. “European broadcasters and pay-TV operators are working very hard on deploying HD to their viewer base. As European customers upgrade their TVs to HDTVs, they may also decide to purchase a model that supports 3-D content,” said Blackwell. “The broadcasters in Europe have not been as aggressive with 3-D rollouts. The BBC has said they will record some of the 2012 Olympics in 3-D, but they have not guaranteed those events will be broadcast in 3-D. Sky will begin broadcasting in the United Kingdom on October 1, and Sky Deutschland is in discussions to broadcast football matches in 3-D, but that may not happen until 2013.”
    With IPTV, cable, satellite and terrestrial pay-TV options in many pay-TV markets, imaginative 3-D offers could give operators a competitive advantage. “The service providers I’ve talked to definitely see 3-D as a competitive differentiator and a way to further lock in customers. Even if an operator that provides HD isn’t offering a dedicated 3-D channel, you will see them offering 3-D PPV or on-demand programs or some type of limited 3-D programming channel to ensure they remain competitive. Of course, this will not happen overnight, and it may take three to five years for some leading operators to get a respectable 3-D offering together,” says Hunt.
    Blackwell does not see 3-D becoming a key competitive differentiator unless “operators can secure exclusive rights to a particular channel or create original content through a partnership with producers. So far, operators have been including the 3-D channels with the HD subscription, so there doesn’t seem to be an opportunity to create increased revenue just for 3-D content.”