[Satellite News 05-04-10] The recovering auto industry and expanding signs of increased consumer spending helped Sirius XM boost sales by 11 percent and generate $663.8 million in revenues with a net income of $41.6 million in the first quarter of 2010 — a performance that surprised analysts expecting the company to break even.
    In a conference call, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin said the company is on pace to demolish its goal of adding 500,000 new subscribers in 2010 after Sirius reeled in 171,000 subscribers in the first quarter. “Continued positive subscriber growth, double-digit growth in revenue and a sharp focus on costs resulted in the highest quarterly adjusted operating income in the company’s history,” Karmazin said.
    Gabelli & Co. analyst Brett Harriss was impressed by Sirius XM’s first quarter results, highlighting the fact that the company has made a complete turnaround from just a year ago, when Sirius reported first quarter losses of $52.6 million. “Considering the dark phase this company went through, Sirius wants to put out numbers that they’re going to be able to beat. … They’re in a wait-and-see mood, because they don’t want to hang themselves out there to get shot by investors. But if they continue a run like this, there’s a very good case their stock will break the $2 mark in 2013,” said Harriss.
    Martin Pyykkonen, analyst at Janco Partners, said Sirius XM has successfully expanded its presence, making its service available online, on special satellite radio devices and the Apple iPhone. “Sirius’ results are also a good sign for automakers, as the company’s success is somewhat pinned to the success of the auto industry, with a majority of its sales boost coming from new car installations,” said Pyykkonen.
Sirius XM investors have taken notice of the company’s upswing, as its stock value has nearly doubled this year after trading as low as a nickel in early 2009. At the time, some analysts predicted that Sirius XM’s enormous debt, combined with the terms of Sirius and XM’s 2008 merger agreement prohibiting the new company from raising prices for three years, would force the company to file for bankruptcy. The satellite broadcaster was then rescued by Liberty Media Corp. financing in February 2009.
    However, Sirius still holds $2.8 billion in long-term debt, and Harriss believes the long-term effects of its debt will slow Sirius’ recovery. “All of this past quarter’s profits and then some went to pay down debt. That’s money that the company won’t be able to invest back into the business,” said Harriss. “Howard Stern’s $500 million, five-year contract is also coming to an end. While he is largely responsible for Sirius’ debt, he is also responsible for the addition of about a million subscribers over the course of his tenure, and there’s little doubt that he will continue on with Sirius XM. If he stays, it will cost Sirius money. If he doesn’t, Sirius could lose those 1 million subscribers.”
    Sirius XM may be on track to prove that satellite radio is a product that U.S. customers will support in the long-term, boosted by its churn rate falling to 2 percent from 2.2 percent in 2009 for self-pay customers. However, both Harriss and Pyykkonen said it is more important for the company to be profitable and that Sirius XM must address the fact that its average revenue per subscriber is decreasing, reaching a 6.6 percent drop during the 2010 first quarter.