[Satellite News 09-23-09] Satellite operators have yet to report any substantial damage from the global economic crisis and will most likely escape the crisis unscathed if the economy stays on track to recover at the end of 2009, according to new NSR research, released Sept. 23.
    The report, “Global Assessment of Satellite Supply Demand (GASD), 6th Edition,” highlights a strong 2008 for commercial operators, with significant overall revenue increases in the sector. Leasing contracts have generated $9.1 billion for satellite operators this year, and revenues could reach $13.8 billion by 2018, according to the report.
NSR estimates that combined C-, Ku- and Ka-band global transponder demand has yielded 5,130 TPEs (36 MHz transponder equivalents) worth of capacity leases in 2008 and that growth will increase at the average annual rate of 2.2 percent, reaching reach more than 6,370 TPEs in the next ten years.
    Commercial High Throughput Satellite (HTS) operators also had a strong year, leasing 16 Gbps of capacity in 2008. NSR expects HTS growth to increase more than ten-fold by 2018. These satellites use either Ku-band or Ka-band frequencies to provide services that reuse frequencies and multiple spot beams to increase throughput and reduce the price-per-bit delivered. NSR projects the cost of HTS ground and customer premise equipment should not be a barrier to HTS capacity being substituted for FSS capacity for commercial satellite applications.
   Despite the strong performance, NSR analysts wrote that the industry is not yet completely out of rough economic waters as some risk still exists due to the fact that satellite capacity leasing, historically, is a trailing indicator of economic strength.
   Excluding TV broadcasting, where leasing has increased across the board, NSR noted some cases of slowing sales cycles. VSAT networking service operators showed slower sales in 2008. However, similar tends to be offset by growth in other segments like backhaul or government leasing, which will likely see a spike in demand in 2010 to 2011 as new capacity becomes available and the improving business climate leads to re-launching of delayed spending or investment for future growth, NSR said.
    The new NSR report continues a string of positive research results released by the firm this year. In April, NSR Senior Analyst Patrick French predicted the industry would suffer minial economic damage. “NSR’s current assumption is if the economic recession in North America and Europe begins to turn around at the end of this year, there will probably be no significant impact on satellite broadband services. If the recession continues beyond 2009 and into 2010, then all bets are off. If things go really bad, it will be really bad for everyone, not just in the satellite sector,” he said.
    In June, Patrick French had similar sentiments for the Asian communications and broadcast operator market. “Based on discussions with numerous satellite operators in the region and around the world, Asia so far has seen minimal impact from the global economic crisis and it has been no more or less severe in Asia than elsewhere,” he said.
    Looking forward, NSR urged the industry to track developments in the satellite broadband Internet access services segment, which could lead to a major shift in how parts of the market are seen in the future, as well as other services like maritime, aeronautical and other mobility services.