[Satellite News 07-28-09] Analysis firm Forecast International is projecting worldwide deliveries of about 262 geostationary or medium-Earth orbit commercial communications satellites by 2019, according to a study, “The Market for Commercial Communications Satellites: 2009-2018,” released July 27.
    The deliveries, according to Forecast International Space Systems Editor John Edwards, will bring in $38.7 billion for the satellite industry and be driven by strong demand for high-definition television and mobile satellite services. “There will be a slight spike over the next 36 months, with purchases tapering off somewhat in subsequent years,” he said.
    The report highlights the satellite industry’s longevity by pointing to recent statistics in a tough economic climate. Edwards mentions that 25 commercial spacecraft were ordered in 2008, a slight increase over the 23 ordered in 2007, and said that early indicators for 2009 point to a solid year.
    Forecast International also speculates that the low-Earth orbiting (LEO) mobile communications industry will see production of 142 spacecraft worth about $2.7 billion, primarily driven by the market’s response to the solidification of fleet replacement plans for Orbcomm and Globalstar.
    The viability of the commercial sector has not gone unnoticed by other sectors and has even motivated military-focused manufacturers, such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing, to divert some attention to the commercial industry. “What will be interesting to see is what happens when several defense programs like GOES, GPS, Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) and others, are completed. Theoretically, the completion of these programs will free Boeing and Lockheed Martin to pursue more commercial work. … In the 2014 timeframe, we should see these two heavyweights back in the commercial game in a big way,” said Edwards.
     The Forecast International report asserts that the state of the commercial sector contrasts most of the aerospace industry, which is experiencing or anticipating a sharp decline in business. “While growth for the operators does not always translate into busy production lines for satellite manufacturers, commercial satellite operators can expect continued growth despite the economy,” said Edwards.