With the market for mobile TV "finally gaining momentum," IMS Research is predicting strong growth for the sector throughout the next several years.

IMS forecasts that by the end of 2011, nearly 500 million people will be watching TV on cellular phones. Driven primarily by the adoption of broadcast-based services such as DVB-H, mobile digital TV will experience 50 percent year-on-year growth through 2010, according to the study "Mobile TV – A Complete Analysis of the Global Market – 2006 Edition."

Beginning early in 2010, cellular network-based mobile TV subscriptions will be overtaken by even quicker growth in digital broadcast services, the study said. By then, more than half of the world’s mobile TV subscribers will receive their video via a mobile digital broadcast service.

"Given the right conditions, mobile TV has the potential to spread from one customer to the next like few technologies before it," Stephen Froehlich, one of the report’s authors, said in a statement. "If providers effectively supply compelling content, quality reception, and affordable, attractive phones, then every new mobile TV subscriber can become a mobile TV evangelist. However, to make their customers into product evangelists, mobile TV service providers and their partners must invest enough in infrastructure and technology to enable both wide population coverage and good indoor reception."

Role of Satellites

In the study, IMS Research looked at three specific segments of the market: cellular terminals, portable media players and automotive infotainment systems. On a collective basis, IMS Research believes these three segments will account for an estimated 13.4 million devices shipped in 2006 that are able to receive digital mobile-TV broadcasts. The 2003 figure was less than 25,000 so growth throughout the last three years already appears to be strong.

In Asia, satellite has played a significant role throughout the last two years. In Japan, MBSat (Mobile Broadcast Satellite) has already launched commercial mobile-TV services. According to IMS Research, this was the world’s first mobile-TV service. The service, dubbed Mobaho, was launched in October 2004. Receivers were limited to portable media players, an aftermarket in-car system, and a PC card for laptops.

Korea soon followed Japan’s lead with TU Media, which launched commercial services in 2005. The operator went through the 100,000-customer barrier in July 2005, and plans to have more than 6 million subscribers by 2010, Sunkyu Kang, vice president of TU Media’s public relations office, told Satellite News in August 2005. According to IMS Research, "all existing and planned satellite mobile-TV services of which we are aware are transmitted in the S-band, and require the use of ground-based gap-fillers in urban areas."

Alcatel and the European Space Agency are working to use 3G cellular-tower infrastructure as repeaters to enable services in Europe.

The market where it seems as though satellite will have the most significant impact is in automotive infotainment. IMS Research believes it will be around 2010 when this market really begins to take off and predicts that satellite will have a strong impact. Satellite platforms will account for the largest share of the worldwide market for in-car mobile TV from 2009 onward. IMS Research estimates that in 2011, there will be more than 4 million in-car, mobile-TV systems shipped worldwide.

Advantages and Disadvantages

"Satellite enables you to have regional coverage in one fell swoop," Froehlich said. "Secondly, you have proprietary standards, which can mean high performance. Thirdly, you can deploy a proven business and technical model similar to that of satellite-radio companies such as XM and Sirius Satellite Radio."

However, Froehlich added, mobile TV via satellite also presents a number of potential hurdles. "Satellite requires a huge investment up front, maybe around $200 million," he said. "You also need urban coverage, which requires thousands of gap-filler repeater transmitters in urban areas. For example, SK Telecom has likely spent more than $500 million on 8,000 gap-fillers for S-DMB (Satellite-Digital Multimedia Broadcasting). Availability of local channels and timely local information is considered a key value proposition for mobile TV, but this is a problem for satellite mobile both in terms of bandwidth and licensing. Also, reports from Korea indicate that S-DMB is losing out to T-DMB (Terrestrial-Digital Multimedia Broadcasting) in Korea."

Another potential problem is developing antenna that can receive digital-terrestrial or satellite-TV signals on portable media players and in car systems. "A key benefit to the customer is the ability to receive existing terrestrial and satellite broadcasts while in motion; however, these standards such as ATSC (American Television Standards Commission), DVB-T (Digital Video Broadcast-Terrestrial) and DVB-S (Digital Video Broadcast-Satellite) are designed to be received by stationary antenna," Froehlich said.

"As a result, mobile receivers of these broadcasts must cope with Doppler and on-the-fly multipath resolution issues without the benefits of a mobile-specific modulation scheme such as T-DMB, DVB-H (DVB-Handheld), or S-DMB. This issue presents a significant challenge for designers of both terrestrial and satellite-based, in-car, mobile-TV receivers."

–Mark Holmes Contact: Stephen Froehlich, IMS Research; e-mail: [email protected]