by Peter J. Brown

In a perfect world, all television viewers would be reclining in front of a big screen High Definition Television (HDTV), wearing heads up displays–a device like a pair of glasses that allows the user to watch a program while also viewing real-time information–accessing multiple fully enabled, always-on interactive television streams seamlessly matched to the HDTV programming in question. Moreover, all this would be available at a reasonable cost and driven by a personalized menu that meshed live and on-demand content together into the viewer’s daily allotment of TV viewing time.

Well, this is not a perfect world–the rapid maturation of a digital backbone on the ground and in the sky not withstanding–and as we round the corner and wade into 2004, there still remains unanswered questions. Are broadcasters ready to take out their checkbooks again in order to embrace next-generation compression options and even IP data networking, doing so after just making the jump from analog to digital? Are Fixed Satellite Service providers about to lose their identities as they couple with fiber companies, each with its own in-depth Internet Protocol (IP) video agendas? And what about the telcos? Some have entered into recent alliances with the Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) service providers, while others are exercising their IPTV options in many areas of the world, even to a limited extent in North America.

One of the dominating themes of the new year seems to center on whether or not Microsoft will see significant traction for Windows Media 9 in the broadcast space after years of trying to figure how to best make the jump from the desktop into the living room. So far, the trumpets are not exactly blaring with respect to any quick acceptance of the licensing terms surrounding MPEG-4 part 10/H.264/AVC. This collective ambivalence alone does not move Microsoft instantly into the winner’s circle, but it does allow everyone to choose, and there is something to be said about the role of choice or the presence of multiple options in all of this.

With the Advanced Television Systems Committee (ATSC) rapidly moving ahead with its plans for Enhanced-VSB (Vestigial Sideband), despite the back chatter about how the guys on the train leaving Grand Central Station may have to wait until they get home to see the chunk of video, you can feel the ground moving as well as the aspirin bottle tops popping.

In other words, talk of new technologies or radical new approaches brings us back to that old game of balancing expectations, and it does not solve the complex problem of who will be the first to identify and launch that long-awaited killer application that transforms the pool of investments in wireless and even Wi-Fi-enabling infrastructure into viable revenue streams. Both multicasting and datacasting are still in their relatively early stages of development. Both are in need of help, however, when it comes to the execution side of the equation. Putting more content in motion only gets you so far. In the near term, there are bound to be more opportunities, for the satellite industry along with everyone else in the distribution chain.

In our not-so-perfect world, you cannot talk cable and not talk satellite just as you cannot talk digital television broadcasting and not talk satellite or cable. IPTV has to fit into the mix as well, much as we want to think that it lies way out on the edge of the galaxy somewhere.

So where does the door open or close for the guys with their futures tied to the launch pad? All the HDTV headaches and IP pipe dreams aside, the satellite industry as a whole better intensify its efforts to demystify the business, and do it quick. The DBS teams tell a pretty solid story in a few short sentences, and now the rest of the satellite industry needs to do the same thing as part of an image-correction campaign, which industry Consultant Susan Irwin and others often describe as necessary to overcome the problem of always being seen as the last resort transmission mode.

That said, the satellite industry still has lots of momentum thanks to the big footprint edge, which cannot go unmentioned. And despite the long uphill climb for ventures like the Rainbow DBS venture, aka Voom, this ability to deliver big pipes–yes, they do come with a hefty price tag–or lots of little pipes that can swell and then retract again, remains key to this unfolding magical process of moving vast amounts of multimedia content in concert with HDTV.

Peter J. Brown is Via Satellite’s Senior Multimedia & Homeland Security Editor.