Allied Nations Align Their Messaging for Deterring Conflict in Space

Space Symposium 2024. Photo: Space Foundation

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.— The importance of allies and partners working together to understand what military deterrence in space activities means, and define what rogue behaviors should trigger deterrence, has become a bigger part of space domain situational awareness.

Military commanders, leaders in military intelligence, and commercial industry partners from Canada, Norway, the U.S., and Germany, took a deep dive into how to manage conflict and coordinate deterrence efforts in space at Space Symposium in Colorado Springs, Colorado, on April 10. 

 “I think one of the best things we can do is show intent in our policies,” said Kelli Seybolt, deputy under secretary, U.S. Air Force. “The broader we work those policies to rationalize across partners, not just NATO, but other partners, can really be reinforcing to deterrence.”

Policies play a key role because they are part of how a country demonstrates a willingness to act or to respond to particular behaviors in space, according to Avril Jolliffe, director general, Industry, Trade and Economic Security U.K. Ministry of Defense. “I think having those sort of clear statements of intent are really critical for demonstrating how we plan to work not just on our own, but with allies.”

Kay Sears, vice president and general manager, Space, Intelligence and Weapon Systems at Boeing, said that countries have to be tightly connected technologically to be able to really deter the adversary. “Some of the things that the allied relationships give us are things like a geographic advantage,” she said. “Places around the world where we can base things and have ground stations to contribute to joint operations.”

For example, Australia and Japan are in very critical parts of the world, Sears said. “So how we leverage those relationships and the infrastructure that we put there, and some of the supply chain that might be there, is how we really knit together the allied picture that makes us stronger in numbers,” she said. “That is where true deterrence starts to happen.”

Over the last couple years, Canada’s military space leadership has worked to figure out the role of defense in deterrence. Brig. Gen. Mike Adamson, commander, Canadian Space Division & Joint Force Space Component Royal Canadian Air Force, said that they need to understand what it is that they need to deter in the first place. “That would probably be irresponsible actions on the part of adversaries, or really any actor in the space domain,” he said.

To do that, it’s incumbent upon all like-minded nations to try and maintain the moral high ground in terms of the actions they do, as a way of setting an example. “We can articulate what we expect in terms of norms of behavior, what are responsible behaviors, and then as a group, as a show of solidarity, call out irresponsible behaviors,” he said.

Adamson added that part of the moral high ground is making sure the actions that a country or countries actually do take in order to deter an adversary “don’t necessarily pollute the environment and ruin the space domain for everybody.”

Germany’s capability to collaborate with allies and partners should be done at multiple levels, said Maj. Gen. Michael Traut, commander, Bundeswehr Space Command German Air Force. “The first level is the political level, to show a strong resolve and send a strong common signal. This is paramount. This is the start of successful deterrence,” he said.

For Norway, politics are getting in the way of achieving a collaborative goal with other neighboring countries. “Russia has changed quite drastically,” said Nils Andreas Stensønes, director of the Norwegian Intelligence Service. “After the invasion of Ukraine, it made it almost impossible to cooperate with them. Russia is moving away from Europe, they are orienting themselves towards other nations, and they’re in what President Putin calls ‘constant conflict.’ That means that we need to be a lot clearer on deterrence if we want to achieve safe space. Because talking rationally to them today seems very, very hard.”

Adamson said that Canada has operated in an alliance framework from the start, and it informs the decision-making process going forward, which adds to their deterrence value. 

“One of the most important things we’ve done with our partner nations is actually the operationalization of space, the recognition that in fact there needs to be a dedicated body, a dedicated office within our militaries, that has to be responsible for considering all of the various aspects of conflict potentially in the domain,” Adamson said. 

He referenced the number of space commands that have been stood up over the past 18 months across Canada, France, Germany, the U.K., and Australia. “It’s been a journey all of us have done, sort of evolving those organizations together at the same time,” he said. “I think those have been the most important steps we’ve taken in advancing this allied-by-design framework. It helps us make sure we all stand together, stand strong, and provide that deterrent effect.”